The U.S. Senate’s floor vote on the CLARITY Act — the bill that would set the regulatory framework for the American digital asset market — has been pushed back to September, and market expectations for passage this year are cooling accordingly. The House already passed the bill by a wide margin last year, 294 to 134, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in a 15-9 vote on May 14, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego (Arizona) and Angela Alsobrooks (Maryland) crossing party lines to support it, fueling hopes of a bipartisan path forward. However, Senate leadership failed to secure floor time before the chamber’s extended August recess, and disagreements between the two parties over an ethics provision limiting officials’ crypto conflicts of interest remained unresolved, pushing the vote into the next session.

Two factors will largely determine what happens next. The first is whether the bill can clear the 60-vote threshold needed to end a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democratic votes are needed even with full party unity — and the newly disclosed ethics language may actually be costing votes rather than winning them. That provision would bar the president, vice president, and members of Congress from issuing or sponsoring digital assets through 2029, with enforcement authority given to the Department of Justice. Democrats argue this falls short of addressing conflicts of interest tied to President Trump’s and his family’s existing crypto ventures. Senate Banking Committee Democrats have escalated their criticism by citing an estimate that Trump earned roughly $1.4 billion from crypto-related activities last year, and some Democrats who backed the bill at the committee stage now appear to be wavering.

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The second factor is the sheer scarcity of floor time. Even after the Senate returns in mid-September, it heads into another district work period from October 5 to November 6, and competes for floor time with budget bills, nominations, and other priorities ahead of the November midterms. As a result, analysts expect only a few effective weeks in September to actually be available for CLARITY Act deliberations. This backdrop is precisely why Galaxy Digital’s research division lowered its odds of passage this year from 50% to 30%. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming), one of the bill’s key negotiators, has warned that failure to act this year could push comprehensive federal crypto regulation all the way out to 2030.

Even if the Senate does pass the bill, that won’t be the end of the process. If the Senate’s amended version differs from what the House already approved, the House would need to vote again, and the legislation only takes legal effect once both chambers pass identical text and the president signs it. On top of that, many provisions are set to take effect 360 days after enactment — meaning that even in the best-case scenario of passage this year, actual changes to market structure likely wouldn’t materialize until the second half of 2027. Going forward, the market’s key signals to watch are whether Senate leadership actually allocates floor time after the September return, and whether a compromise on the ethics provision can be reached that clears the 60-vote bar. Until those two signals materialize, cautious skepticism about passage within this calendar year appears warranted.

This article is a summary and analysis based on publicly available news reports. It does not constitute investment advice or financial recommendations. Before making any investment decisions, please verify the latest legislative developments and consult a qualified financial advisor.