XRP, the cryptocurrency issued by Ripple, has fallen below the $1.04 support level it had held firmly since November 2024. As of 3:10 p.m. Korea time on the 11th, XRP was trading at $1.00, down 2.39% from the previous day. Analyst Alex Marzell noted on social media platform X on the 10th that the $1.04 support level, which had held on a weekly basis since November 2024, broke last week. According to Marzell, the price is currently attempting to climb back above that broken support, and the $1.04 mark remains the most critical level to watch. He explained that a clean weekly loss of that support would open the door to a decline toward the next support level at $0.75. XRP has indeed posted its lowest weekly close in roughly 20 months, deepening concerns across the market.

Prediction market platform Polymarket has assessed a 65% probability that XRP’s price falls below $1 before the end of this month. Another Polymarket contract puts the probability of XRP reaching the $1 mark by August 10 at 71%, while the odds of it climbing to $1.20 stand at just 12% — reflecting a market that’s leaning more toward decline or sideways movement than a near-term rebound. XRP has fallen 4.5% so far this month and is reportedly barely holding onto the $1 level.

One of the factors weighing most heavily on the price is the delay in the U.S. Congress’s CLARITY Act. The bill failed to come up for a Senate vote before recess, meaning one of the key drivers behind XRP’s price gains has, for now, disappeared. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture, with the vote now scheduled for September 15, when the Senate reconvenes. The bill passed the House by an overwhelming 294-134 margin last July, which had fueled optimism in the market that the hardest hurdle had already been cleared. However, passing the Senate requires 60 votes, and with Republicans holding only 53 seats, some Democratic support was essential — support that ultimately failed to materialize in time. Polymarket’s odds of the bill becoming law this year, which had soared to 82% back in February, have since plunged to around 13-14%.

According to a Grayscale memo cited by crypto outlet The Moon Show on X, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing has fallen significantly in recent weeks. Grayscale warned that as the bill’s passage is delayed, the U.S. risks losing crypto investment capital and developers to other countries. Some also note that even if the bill clears the Senate, differences in wording from the House-passed version would require both chambers to reconcile their texts and pass identical language before it could reach the president’s desk — meaning even a successful September vote could still leave actual enactment some way off.

Cryptocurrency price declines tied to delayed regulatory legislation have happened before. A similar case occurred with the delayed approval of a spot bitcoin ETF: in August 2023, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission postponed approval of ARK Invest’s spot bitcoin ETF, bitcoin’s price briefly fell from around $29,000 to about $26,000.

Not every analyst is forecasting a decline, however. Analyst Ali Martinez laid out a data-based case for upside over the weekend on X. His first point was that a buy signal had appeared on the monthly chart’s Tom DeMark Sequential indicator — he noted that the same signal in April 2020 was followed by a 1,074% rally in XRP’s price. His second point centered on accumulation by large investors, or “whales.” According to data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment, large investor wallets added 380 million XRP over the past week — a sign, Martinez argues, that big holders are confidently deploying capital at current price levels.

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Martinez identified $1.06 as the key resistance level XRP must break through for the price to rise further. On-chain data shows that roughly 3 billion XRP have historically traded around the $1.06 level, suggesting that zone is likely to act as a significant supply overhang. If the monthly close forms above $1.06, his analysis suggests the next target would be $1.35, with the potential to reach as high as $1.64 after that. Looking at technical indicators, the Aroon Oscillator currently sits at -100, suggesting recent lows are dominating price action, while a negative BBTrend reading points to sustained selling pressure. The ADX, however, sits at a relatively weak 11.2, suggesting the overall trend itself isn’t especially strong — meaning the base case for now is that XRP stays trapped in a narrow range between $1.00 and $1.08 while the market awaits regulatory clarity. Still, with the $1.06 resistance level and the CLARITY Act vote both in play, the broader market view is that a clearer directional move within the month can’t be ruled out.

Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile investment product. Investors should exercise particular caution, as significant losses are possible.