XRP Heads Into August at $1.06 — Will History Repeat Itself?
Ripple’s XRP is heading into August facing a four-year losing streak in the month, and as open interest indicators reset, attention is turning to where the price goes from here. Crypto trader Zach Rector has warned that the token could fall below $1, while chart analyst ChartNerd has pointed to the possibility of a rebound off a long-term support level. Meanwhile, on-chain data from CryptoQuant points to speculative leverage being flushed out, suggesting selling pressure may be easing, even as legislative delays and stagnant ETF inflows remain factors weighing on the picture.
According to industry sources on August 2, XRP closed out July around $1.06, and market participants are now watching closely to see whether August can finally break the token’s recurring pattern of monthly declines. Data from crypto data platform CryptoRank shows that XRP has posted negative returns every August since 2022. Breaking it down by year, the token fell 13.6% in August 2022, followed by declines of 26.6% in 2023, 9.17% in 2024, and 8.15% in 2025 — four consecutive years of August weakness. That said, when averaged across XRP’s entire price history, August has actually produced a modest average gain of 0.43%, a relatively better showing than the average returns seen in February and June. Still, what’s really weighing on investors is the recent four-year losing streak, and many are hoping this year finally breaks that pattern.
Analysts are offering starkly different technical readings of what comes next. Rector argues that XRP hasn’t cleared the danger zone yet, pointing out that August in U.S. midterm election years has historically tended to be a rough stretch for the market. Looking back at the data, XRP fell 5% in August 2014 and plunged 23% in August 2018; even during the most recent bear market, the token dropped 13% in that same month, putting the average decline across those periods at roughly 14%. Rector suggested that if this historical pattern repeats, XRP could fall back into the $0.88 to $0.90 range before establishing a durable bottom.
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ChartNerd, by contrast, has emphasized that XRP is once again approaching a long-term ascending support trendline that has held since 2020. According to this analysis, previous tests of that same support level have more often been followed by strong rebound rallies rather than further deep declines — offering a more constructive read on where price could head from here.
Data on open interest across multiple exchanges tracked by CryptoQuant offers a more encouraging signal: leverage in the market appears to be unwinding. Open interest on major exchanges including Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken has fallen back to levels last seen before the rally at the end of 2024, indicating that a significant volume of speculative leveraged positions has already been flushed out of the market. Compared to the open interest spikes seen during the peaks of January and July 2025, the current market looks structurally healthier, with fewer leveraged traders positioned. Notably, open interest tied to XRP derivatives on Binance has fallen to around $369.6 million, the lowest level recorded since 2024 — a sign that the risk of cascading liquidations has meaningfully diminished.
Legislative developments in U.S. politics and stagnant institutional inflows continue to act as constraints on price movement. Regulatory clarity legislation currently pending in the U.S. Senate — intended to establish the legal status of crypto assets — failed to pass before the Senate’s recess and has now been pushed back to September. Prediction market platform Polymarket currently prices the odds of this legislation passing this year at a relatively low 35% to 43%. Meanwhile, spot ETF markets, which serve as a barometer for institutional investor sentiment, have also shown signs of sluggishness — over the most recent 17 trading days, new inflows registered at exactly $0 on 10 of those days.
Despite the cautious signals embedded in recent price action, the underlying on-chain environment looks notably different from prior downturns. Amid broader weakness across the crypto market overall, XRP was trading at $1.06 as of 10:30 p.m. that day, up 0.22% from the previous day. According to analysts, if XRP can hold the key psychological support level of $1, the token has a reasonable chance of moving into the $1.10 range within the coming days. However, should selling pressure intensify and the $1 support level give way, the price could see further downside toward the $0.90 to $0.95 range.